28th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum – The Need for Naval Statecraft to Win the New Cold War

Hon. Brent Sadler’s discussion focused on Admiral Gary Roughhead’s 2010-2011 initiative to rebalance the U.S. Navy in response to the growing China threat, known as the rebalance to the Asia Pacific. This initiative significantly influenced both the U.S. military and its allies, including the Filipino forces.

Hon. Sadler discussed key historical events to illustrate the successes and failures in addressing the China challenge. Failures included the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, which resulted in Chinese control, and the 2013-2015 Chinese island-building campaign. Additionally, the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and support for the Donbas insurrection were cited as missed opportunities. Conversely, successes like the 2018-2019 Build Act and preventing a hostile takeover of Subic Bay were noted. The West Kapala incident in 2020 highlighted the importance of naval pressure and diplomacy alongside economic considerations.

The discussion highlighted the complex geopolitical landscape, characterized by partnerships between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. It emphasized the need to manage the economic, diplomatic, informational, and military arenas concurrently. Regarding U.S. military capabilities, the discussion noted lessons from the prolonged conflict in Ukraine emphasizing the importance of rearming and strengthening military capabilities. The inadequacy of current institutions to manage this new Cold War scenario was also highlighted, stressing the necessity for a new strategic framework.